MarkDaniels.Blogspot.com: Quick Takes on the Biden-Palin Debate

Friday, October 03, 2008

Quick Takes on the Biden-Palin Debate

[I never take sides here. But I do sometimes look at things as a student of US history and current events.]

Accolades: I've seen every vice presidential debate since they began. This was the best one ever.

It was certainly the most substantive. While both candidates engaged in misconstructions of their opponents' positions and records, neither was egregious in this.

Sarah Palin Didn't Crash and Burn: I admit that my expectations of Palin going into the evening's debate were extremely low. I've said on this site that while her selection by McCain for his running mate was a demographic home run, I wondered whether she could be taken seriously as a candidate for vice president. One may still question her qualifications, but not based on her debate performance. Sure, she did come back to those talking points a lot and yes, she was folksy, but she was also well informed, even on foreign policy and national security questions.

Just Plain Folks: Joe Biden is a guy who plays up his middle class roots and legitimately so. He is, in many ways, still a middle class guy. Palin shares similar roots and, unlike what she did in her interview with Katie Couric, made no effort tonight, to pretend otherwise in the debate. Both Biden and Palin were devoid of pretense.

But Palin's use of colloquial English was especially striking. I turned to my wife at one point and said, "She talks like my Mom." That may just strike a chord in some voters.

Biden gets an A+: Just because Palin beat pre-debate expectations shouldn't cause the fact that Biden turned in an outstanding performance to be ignored. There's just no way of getting around the fact that, after thirty-five years in the Senate, Joe Biden knows the issues. He also was, at times, deadly in his indictments of the Republican Party's record for the past eight years and of Senator McCain's. Interestingly, I don't believe that he ever criticized anything in Palin's record. In fact, he applauded her for the Alaska windfalls tax on oil companies, a levy that results in refunds for the people of that state.

Blessedly Quip-Proof: Like the McCain-Obama set-to last Friday night, neither candidate came supplied with pre-canned zingers.

And while there was good humor and smiles, the two candidates, stood, so to speak, toe to toe, without much in the way of sarcasm. But even the little bit of sarcasm they used was delivered with decorum.

The Q Rating: The Q rating measures the likability of prominent personalities. My sense is that you would have to be a raving partisan to come away disliking either Joe Biden or Sarah Palin after tonight's debate. They differ substantially on the issues and they went after one another tenaciously. But their ready smiles and their straightforward, if stylistically different, rhetoric, made them both likable.

This is a quality that Biden has always possessed. His innate affability, along with his obvious intelligence, comfort with himself, and knowledge of the critical issues confronting the country, all contributed to his being, I thought, the most attractive and interesting candidate for president in this year's Democratic field. So, it's no surprise that I came away from tonight's debate still thinking that Joe would be a good guy with whom to watch a baseball game.

But, Palin's likability may shock some people. For some, the surprise, if they're willing to admit it, is that Palin didn't collapse in a puddle, intimidated by a political veteran and his mastery of policy facts and options. For others though, it may have been that this woman who, in recent weeks, has been caricatured as part airhead and part Iron Lady, is a pleasant human being with a brain.

In the 2000 election, Al Gore had every reason to expect to beat George W. Bush. The economy was in good shape. The country was at peace. And Gore knew his stuff. Boy, did he know his stuff. But Bush won.

Some will say that Gore had the election stolen from him. But even if you believe that, he couldn't have lost if he had been able to capitalize on his built-in advantages and had successfully prevented the election from becoming close.

What made it close? One poll suggested a possible explanation. It was because W seemed like the kind of guy with whom voters then, back in 2000, which today seems like a million years ago, could see themselves hoisting a few brewskis. Gore wasn't that kind of guy. Who wants to party with a wonk? (Unless you're another wonk.) Although Biden clearly knows the issues that he and Palin addressed tonight with greater depth, neither he or the Alaska governor are wonks. They're likable people, at least if the personas they projected tonight can be believed.

Who Won?: The conventional wisdom is that when one candidate beats expectations and the other meets them, the victory goes to the person who beat the expectations. But I don't think that conventional wisdom applies here.

Palin is still so new to the national scene that, given her exceptional speech at the Republican National Convention, followed by her bad performances in two major interviews, and now, her excellent showing tonight, the voting public, which seemed to be abandoning her, will withhold judgment of her and her qualifications for the time being.

That in itself is a triumph for the McCain campaign. Had the Katie Couric-interview iteration of Palin showed up on that debate stage tonight, it would have proven fatal to both McCain's candidacy and her future as a national figure. As it is, she will fight on to another day.

Button, Button, Where's the Button?: Hot button issues which have generated much heat and little light--or policy, for that matter--over the past twenty-eight years, were largely absent. Abortion, for example, didn't come up. Nor did stem cell research.

One such issue did come up: gay marriage. And guess what? The candidates agreed. Both said that there should be full equality and total access to benefits to both heterosexual and homosexual couples living in committed relationships. Both said that marriage should not be redefined to include homosexual couples.

For some who buy into stereotypes of Christians, particularly evangelical or conservative Christians, Palin's position on this may come as a surprise. But it is perfectly possible for a person to believe that the practice of homosexuality is contrary to God's will and still believe in full civil rights for homosexual couples. That may be a more subtle or nuanced perspective than some may attribute to a Christian, but I see it exemplified in Christians all the time.

The Bottom Line: In my judgment, the only way this vice presidential debate could have changed the results of the November 4, election was if Palin turned in a disastrous performance. She didn't. Conventional wisdom says that running mates, in the end, don't have much effect on the outcomes of elections. No doubt the McCain camp is breathing a sigh of relief tonight knowing that, while Palin has undoubtedly won new respect from political pros on both sides of the Blue-Red divide, the election will come down to a choice between Barack Obama and John McCain. Palin is no Dan Quayle.

Labels:

5 Comments:

At 10/03/2008 1:30 AM , Blogger Fran said...

For mine, Biden had much the better of it.


He had command of far more material, answered less evasively and stuck
closer to the truth than Palin while doing so.


He effectively countered the maverick claims about McCain and
introduced his own hardship story after Palin opened the door by
talking about how she respected his son in the military.


Palin's blunders included the "94 times" that Obama voted against tax
cuts and while Biden countered it on the spot, pointing out its
procedural character, factcheck has already shown that even on this
standard, the right number was 11, all of them people earning more than 1 million p.a.

Palin slipped by saying that Obama and Biden supported an "all of the
above" policy on energy and then saying that this was her policy. She
also clearly implied that if McCain was unable to serve out his term,
she would press ahead on ANWR and reissued the "drill baby drill"
slogan. The word "maverick" was sounding pretty worn out by the end.
Truth be told, I'm not sure that the people McCain is pitching at who
might vote democrat are interested in a maverick as much as someone
who is a known quantity and a steady hand. The results of McCain's
attempt to impose himself on the process last week doesn't suggest
this slogan will give them traction.

She also claimed that the troop numbers now were below pre-surge
numbers but in fact they are still 17000 higher.

Even her return to her populist meme at the end about the MSM rang
hollow. Interestingly, she undercut possible claim about Ifill's bias
by implying that the moderation had served her wishes.


Biden even managed to get in a "god bless the troops" as the closing
remark. Neat.

This debate has opened up new lines of attack on Palin, and since the
questions about competence are on her, this will not play well for
her.

I don't think Palin did herself any favours here. Biden looked like a someone who could pass for a president, and Palin did not -- and that was the key question here. Polling suggests that Palin exceeded expencations, but that was only because the run in with Couric had so radically lowered them. Off a such low base, this doesn't really help. Her tactic of praising Biden at Obama's expense while understandable, probably won't get her any traction. Most of the things Biden contradicts Obama on are things uncommitted voters would agree with Obama on, and since Obama is explicitly there to be Obama's wise counsel and advocate for caution, that he has disagreed publicly makes him seem less like window dressing and more like the steadying hand that some people think might be needed. In this, he contrasts with Palin, who is on the ticket because of what she is to certain demographics rather than because she earned it.

You talk about what one would need to 'hate Palin' (or Biden). I don't hate anyone -- not even Bush, but I feel utter disgust at the context that enables such people. This debate reminded me of that. I'm unusual though.

I suspect the doubts most people have about Palin will persist and it wasn't helpful to her for an explicit question about the death of the No1 man on the ticket to be asked. Her answer on gay rights was dissembling and hard to follow. At the end, we had to relay on the moderator to say "so, you agree". I'm not sure she did. She agreed that she was against gay marriage, and said circumspectly that she wouldn't be for people being denied hospital visits but by the end, I wasn't sure she'd given a clear answer. Given her discursive and confabulating style, she can always say it means something else later.

 
At 10/03/2008 7:15 AM , Blogger smitty1e said...

Senator Biden: B
Governor Palin: C

Both had a squishy non-command of facts, both passed opportunities to go for the throat.
The "issue on which your position has changed" question reminded me of my Big Biden Beef: his Senate Judiciary blovinations. His transformation of confirmation hearings into grandstanding opportunities has been a mark of the decay of American polity.
Kudos to Gwen for completely defusing all of the pre-debate Republican hand-wringing over conflicts of interest. She did a great job.

 
At 10/03/2008 12:41 PM , Blogger Spencer Troxell said...

This post has been removed by the author.

 
At 10/03/2008 12:41 PM , Blogger Spencer Troxell said...

I think I have a little bit of a different take on the debate because I listened to the majority of it on the radio, and caught the tail-end on T.V.

I was driving home from a class, listening on NPR. I thought, man, Biden is smoking Palin. Palin was spitting out bumper stickers and very awkwardly changing subjects she wasn't comfortable with back to energy and/or we can't lose in Iraq. She is the conservative radio candidate. Biden sounded straightforward and much more knowledgeable.

When I got home and turned on the T.V. however, things seemed alot more even. Palin seemed to be doing a better job when I could see her mugging for the camera. I think this is the secret. It was a JFK v. Nixon thing this time, with Palin being the less articulate version of JFK, and Biden being the less sweaty Nixon.

It was a good debate, and they both came off reasonably well if you watched the thing on T.V.

However, I suspect reading a transcript would be eye opening.

 
At 10/03/2008 10:58 PM , Blogger Mark Daniels said...

Thanks to each of you for your comments.

One of the things that both Palin and Biden did was site Senate votes cast by McCain, Biden, and Obama. I always hate this when this is done for the simple fact that even legislators who don't flip-flop or do whatever they think will gain them votes will cast votes that can be construed as contrary to their stated positions on issues. There are committee votes and procedural votes. There are votes on legislation the titles of which make them seem to do one thing, but actually do another. There are acts that go to committee or conference saying one thing, then turning into something altogether different. If a person has voted enough times, their records can be constructed many ways. Both Palin and Biden were guilty of these misconstructions last night.

Spencer, I agree with you that in the opening half-hour of the debate, the portion to which it seems you listened on the radio, Biden had much the better of Palin. And it's indisputable, I think, that he had the superior command of facts and the issues over all. But I also felt that as the debate progressed, Palin gained confidence and lifted her performance. So, from my perspective anyway, I don't think the JFK-Nixon analogy holds.

Fran, you're right that the ultimate question regarding Biden and Palin is who is most qualified to be president. Much more than the debate itself must determine our answer to that question. I've reached a conclusion and that answer will play a part in the vote I cast, probably next week, since we can do that here in Ohio. But, of course, I'll never tell who's getting my vote.

Thanks for dropping by and for your comments, each of you.

Mark

 

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