More on the Threat of Chinese Government to World

The Japan Times has a piece by David Wall, which deals with a neoconservative belief that a US war with China is inevitable. He quotes one neocon thinker who says that if European governments insist on selling military hardware to the Chinese government, it will be like painting bulleyes on the backs of US soldiers.

I don't think that a war between China and the US inevitable. But I do think that the current Chinese regime has hegemonic ambitions and that the rest of the world, especially the US needs to be watchful.

Wall argues however, that the current Chinese regime threatens America more in economic and cyber-terms. There's good reason for this assertion. China is making massive strides economically. That seems to be the Chinese government's primary aim, moving toward involvement in the world economy while trying to maintain its despotic domestic policies.

In their push toward economic growth, they're driving up the price of such commodities as steel and oil, making it harder for an American economy dependent on them to function well.

China is also developing positive relations with nations that are overtly hostile to America and undertaking a massive build-up of their military.

My own view is that whether in economics or in matters military, the US needs to have a strong policy for containment of China. It appears that may be behind recent US decisions to sell fighter planes to India and Pakistan as well as making nice with Vietnam and encouraging the Japanese government to develop more offensive military capabilities.

A few paragraphs from Wall's article:

The U.S. knows that it could not win a military war with China. The nuclear capability of both states is redundant; neither side could use it. A land operation against China would make the current mess in Iraq seem like a tea party. Military capability, on the sea and in the air but not on the land, would only be of use in local skirmishes, such as keeping sea lanes open and weakening the effect of any attempt to blockade Taiwan.

Yet, for the foreseeable future, China can do more damage to America through economic policies and through "cyber warfare" than it can militarily. North Korea is said to be training more than 600 technicians in the science of cyber war -- how many more is China training? I am sure the number runs into thousands. They could devastate the U.S. economy, and have a go at destroying a good part of U.S. military capability.

Simply by threatening to sell its holdings of hundreds of billions of dollars worth of U.S. Treasury Bills, China could wreak havoc in U.S. financial markets. By actually selling them and then refusing to buy any more, it would do serious damage. A Chinese embargo on exports to the U.S. would have U.S. consumers in the streets; many of the U.S. companies that have invested heavily in China would find themselves in bankruptcy.

And then of course there is the question of global access to supplies of raw materials, especially the gas and oil that the Chinese are now tying up in contracts.

Yes, it does seem as though war between the U.S. and China is inevitable. Some would say that it has already started. It will not be a military war, however. Apart from some local skirmishes, the real war will be in the economy and in cyberspace. U.S. soldiers need not worry about those bull's eyes. Yet.

I hope that Wall is correct in saying that a military confrontation between China and the US is not inevitable. But a multi-pronged US policy which includes a strong military component may make sense. Such a policy would address not only China, but US domestic needs and include weaning the country off its dependence on oil as an energy source and making certain that the US economy is not so tilted in the Third Wave direction that the more basic First Wave (agriculture) and Second Wave (industrial) elements come to us exclusively from overseas.

Of course, globalization is inevitable and can be a wonderful thing. But wherever there are governments with malevolent designs, other nations must stand for peace and look out for their nations' interests.

The current Chinese regime is the biggest threat to world peace and stability today. I hope that the US government and others recognize the gravity of that threat.