GO, BUCKEYES!See here and here.
UPDATE: One down.
...The what-ifs are usually avoided by historians. However, several facts lead me to conclude that he would have been re-elected.
First, at the time of Kennedy's death, Barry Goldwater was the presumptive nominee of the GOP and all the polling had Kennedy way ahead of him.
Second, before sunny Ronald Reagan made conservatism acceptable to the mainstream (and before the Democrats' big government philosophy brought the war in Vietnam and enormous deficits that brought seemingly no solution to our broiling social ills), Goldwater and all conservatives of his stripe were regarded as dangerous radicals.
I remember that my parents and grandparents were big Goldwater supporters in 1964. But when we shared this with our Republican family and friends, they were all shocked. They were voting for Johnson, deeming Goldwater to be what some would today call a RINO...because he was too conservative.
If you read Theodore White's account of the '64 campaign, you see the reason Goldwater won the Republican nomination: His troops were more well-organized than anybody out there. The organizational skills his backers developed that year later allowed them to take over the Republican Party.
But most Republicans and most Republican leaders were so put off by Goldwater that when he had to nominate someone from the mainstream of the party to be his Veep candidate, the only person willing to do the job was William Miller.
Miller was a Congressman from NY and a former GOP national chairman. But in spite of that, he was no heavy hitter. Years later, he did one of those American Express, "Do you know me?" commercials, trading on his obscurity.
The Goldwater candidacy would have been in trouble in 1964 whether JFK had lived or not. He was considered out of the GOP mainstream and dangerous by the general public.
Third, JFK had a high approval rating at the time of his death. While those sorts of things change--think of Bush the Elder after the first Gulf War, Kennedy's popularity wasn't the result of a war, which always provides leaders with approval that is ephemeral. (Churchill was turned out of power after winning the second World War and Truman's 1948 post-war victory was a miracle resulting from the arrogance and complacency of Tom Dewey and his handlers.)
The fundamental point is that all the lights were green for Kennedy to win in 1964.
Of course, the great historical what ifs of a Kennedy second term are twofold:
By 1964, even for Johnson, the war in Vietnam was not yet an issue. Goldwater's assertion that we should be more aggressive, involving the deployment of more troops--not unlike what Goldwater's Arizona philosophical heir, John McCain, is saying today about Iraq--fell on deaf ears. Criticisms of the war on poverty had more legs among voters in 1964. But not enough to sway them to vote for Goldwater.
- Would he have pursued pretty much the same policy in Vietnam as Lyndon Johnson did? In spite of latter-day spinning by Ken O'Donnell, Dave Powers, and other JFK insiders, I believe that he would have. The indications of the direction of his policies there were in place before his assassination.
- Would he have initiated the big government War on Poverty? I doubt it. Kennedy was not an FDR liberal the way LBJ was. He had an illiberal cautiousness born of something like indifference to most domestic issues.
JFK would not have likely won by as big a margin over Goldwater in 1964 as LBJ did. There clearly was something of eulogy in the vote for Kennedy's successor.
But Kennedy would not have required what until that point, was the most lopsided presidential win in history to have been returned to the White House. (Goldwater carried Arizona and five southern states, losing the popular vote by something like -million to 24-million.) Given the political climate of that time, it's hard to figure what other states Goldwater might have picked up, although the raw popular vote would probably not have been so lopsided [had he run against JFK and Dallas hadn't happened].
I have no doubt that if the country had the opportunity to vote for a compelling female candidate for President, it would do so..
Bill Clinton...has apparently said that the first woman President will likely be someone from the right, a la Thatcher. I think there's something to that, given doubts harbored by sexists of both genders over whether a woman could be tough enough for the presidency.
While that thought may lead some to tout [Secretary of State Condoleezza] Rice, I think that quite apart from the fact that she's not really an elective political animal (it's hard to imagine Condi talking about pork bellies or the price of pork chops at the super market), Rice would, unless she waits until 2012 or beyond, carry the baggage of an increasingly unpopular Bush foreign policy should she run for President.
I've never felt that Hillary Clinton would be a candidate for President in 2008. My guess is that, in the end, she'll conclude that though she might win the Democratic nomination--a remote prospect for a party desperate to nominate a candidate without all the negative polling numbers Clinton has--she cannot win the general election.
Besides, for the first time in her life, Clinton is doing work largely out of Bill's shadow and she's shown herself to be adept at the work of a legislator, irrespective of what one thinks of her politics.
Both her predecessor in the Senate, Daniel Patrick Moynihan--once called the greatest Senator in US history by George Will--and Ted Kennedy, who personally destroyed his chances of becoming President (a job I doubt that he ever really wanted in spite of the whole Kennedy entitlement thing) found life in the Senate to be to their liking.
I...think that Hillary Clinton will look at those examples and determine she'd rather be a successful Senator than lose the presidency in a year when every Dem in the country will be salivating for the White House and condemn her if she loses.
At present, I can't think of any Republican women who could make a viable run for the presidency. [This isn't to say that there are no able GOP women. There are. I just don't think they can make viable runs for the White House at present.]
Among Democrats, I could see Dianne Feinstein running, but time may be running out on her; she's already 73. (Though I have wondered whether Mark Warner, the person I think will win the Dem nomination in 2008 is likely to give Feinstein serious consideration to be his running mate.) In the end though, I think that Feinstein's liberalism would cause her real problems in the Red states.
Having said all this, I will end with the only appropriate summary of my speculating...or not
Trust in the Lord with all your heart, and do not rely on your own insight. (Proverbs 3:5)Faith is trusting in God. So, here, as in James' book, one sees the intrinsic connection between faith in the God revealed in Jesus Christ and wisdom.
Be angry but do not sin; do not let the sun go down on your anger, and do not make room for the devil. (Ephesians 4:26-27, emphasis mine, of course)When we allow our anger to fester, we give the devil a foothold and that doesn't produce God's righteousness. (Righteousness, according to the Bible, is a right relationship with God. This is initiated by God's action, particularly through Christ, and our surrender to Christ by faith.)
For surely you have heard about him and were taught in him, as truth is in Jesus. You were taught to put away your former way of life, your old self, corrupt and deluded by its lusts, and to be renewed in the spirit of your minds, and to clothe yourselves with the new self, created according to the likeness of God in true righteousness and holiness. So then, putting away falsehood, let all of us speak the truth to our neighbors, for we are members of one another... (Epbesians 4:21-25)Christians are called to put off--or displace--the old ways of life, embracing the new life God gives us in Christ. When we do, this vital organism, the Church, is uplifted to spiritual maturity, greater closeness to Christ, and enhanced faithfulness and effectiveness in fulfilling our mission.
Let the believer who is lowly boast in being raised up, 10and the rich in being brought low, because the rich will disappear like a flower in the field.This runs contrary to much conventional ancient Jewish thinking, as reflected in the response of Jesus' first disciples in a famous exchange:
[Jesus said:] "Again I tell you, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for someone who is rich to enter the kingdom of God.” When the disciples heard this, they were greatly astounded and said, “Then who can be saved?” But Jesus looked at them and said, “For mortals it is impossible, but for God all things are possible.” (Matthew 19-24-26)The disciples' incredulity reflected a cultural notion among first-century Jews--and probably among twenty-first century people of every religious and ethnic group--that wealth was a sign of particular favor from God.
"...My heart exults in the Lord; my strength is exalted in my God. My mouth derides my enemies, because I rejoice in my victory.Hannah saw the gift of her son as one more example of God's penchant for raising up the lowly and bringing down the mighty.
“There is no Holy One like the Lord, no one besides you; there is no Rock like our God. Talk no more so very proudly, let not arrogance come from your mouth; for the Lord is a God of knowledge, and by him actions are weighed. The bows of the mighty are broken, but the feeble gird on strength. Those who were full have hired themselves out for bread, but those who were hungry are fat with spoil. The barren has borne seven, but she who has many children is forlorn. The Lord kills and brings to life; he brings down to Sheol and raises up. The Lord makes poor and makes rich; he brings low, he also exalts. He raises up the poor from the dust; he lifts the needy from the ash heap, to make them sit with princes and inherit a seat of honor. For the pillars of the earth are the Lord’s, and on them he has set the world. “He will guard the feet of his faithful ones, but the wicked shall be cut off in darkness; for not by might does one prevail. The Lord! His adversaries shall be shattered; the Most High will thunder in heaven. The Lord will judge the ends of the earth; he will give strength to his king, and exalt the power of his anointed.”
“My soul magnifies the Lord, and my spirit rejoices in God my Savior, for he has looked with favor on the lowliness of his servant. Surely, from now on all generations will call me blessed; for the Mighty One has done great things for me, and holy is his name. His mercy is for those who fear him from generation to generation. He has shown strength with his arm; he has scattered the proud in the thoughts of their hearts. He has brought down the powerful from their thrones, and lifted up the lowly; he has filled the hungry with good things, and sent the rich away empty. He has helped his servant Israel, in remembrance of his mercy, according to the promise he made to our ancestors, to Abraham and to his descendants forever.” (Luke 1:46-55)And we get a sense of what God's purpose in bringing down the haughty and lifting up the humble is from the words of the prophet Isaiah, later cited in Luke's Gospel to describe John the Baptist's ministry of preparing the world to receive the Savior Jesus:
...as it is written in the book of the words of the prophet Isaiah, “The voice of one crying out in the wilderness: ‘Prepare the way of the Lord, make his paths straight. Every valley shall be filled, and every mountain and hill shall be made low, and the crooked shall be made straight, and the rough ways made smooth; and all flesh shall see the salvation of God.’” (Luke 3:4-6, see also Isaiah 40:3-5)God levels the playing field between the high and low, the wealthy and the poor, and the powerful and the powerless, not because He prefers anybody over another. God loves all people equally. But He lifts the lowly and brings down the lofty for the same purpose: to allow all to see Him and His love.
Now the whole group of those who believed were of one heart and soul, and no one claimed private ownership of any possessions, but everything they owned was held in common. With great power the apostles gave their testimony to the resurrection of the Lord Jesus, and great grace was upon them all. There was not a needy person among them, for as many as owned lands or houses sold them and brought the proceeds of what was sold. They laid it at the apostles’ feet, and it was distributed to each as any had need. (Acts 4:32-35)This is more than enough for today. I'll go to the second major idea which underlies this opening passage and present more verse-by-verse comments in my next pass at this interesting lesson, I hope.
...when read on its own terms, James is a powerful witness to both the diversity in early Christianity and the moral imperative of Christian identity in every age. [italics mine]5. James is an example of what's known as wisdom literature, like the book of Proverbs in the Old Testament.
Happy are those who do not follow the advice of the wicked, or take the path that sinners tread, or sit in the seat of scoffers;More tomorrow, I hope.
but their delight is in the law of the Lord, and on his law they meditate day and night.
They are like trees planted by streams of water, which yield their fruit in its season, and their leaves do not wither. In all that they do, they prosper.
The wicked are not so, but are like chaff that the wind drives away.
Therefore the wicked will not stand in the judgment, nor sinners in the congregation of the righteous;
for the Lord watches over the way of the righteous, but the way of the wicked will perish. (Psalm 1)
I don’t understand religious people who look for a paradise after this life, instead of doing their best to create it here.I suppose that we all know Christians who are so heavenly minded that they're no earthly good, as the saying goes. But it's been my experience that the hope of heaven more often gives Christians the incentive and ability to live this life to its fullest.
There is nothing the government can do to me that will stop me from being involved in what I believe God wants me to do. I do not do it because I like doing it. I do it because I am under what I believe to be the influence of God's hand. I cannot help it. When I see injustice, I cannot keep quiet, for, as Jeremiah says, when I try to keep quiet, God's Word burns like a fire in my breast.When Christians gather to worship God on Sunday mornings and other times, they aren't looking "for a paradise after this life, instead of doing their best to create it here." They're praising God for all the blessings He's already given through Jesus Christ , including eternity.
But what is it that they can ultimately do? The most awful thing that they can do is to kill me, and death is not the worst thing that could happen to a Christian.
Liz and David Carroll Jr. were charged today with involuntary manslaughter in the death of foster child Marcus Fiesel, whom they reported missing Aug. 15.If these charges prove to be true, what can we say in the face of such evil? How do we explain such horrors and how an entire family could conspire to conceal them?
Hamilton County Prosecutor Joe Deters said the Carrolls left the 3-year-old "restrained" in a closet in their Union Township Clermont County home while they went to a family reunion in Kentucky on Aug. 4. Investigators believe he was dead when they got home two days later.
David Carroll is accused of then taking the boy's body to Brown County and burning it. Marcus' remains have not been found.
Other family members knew about the death and helped cover it up, Deters said.
"We believe everyone was aware, everyone covered up. The press conference that they held was part of the cover-up," Deters said, who added that the Carrolls did not confess. "They lied to the bitter end."
1 Hear me, O God, as I voice my complaint;Speaking for myself, this horrible event incites three responses:
protect my life from the threat of the enemy.
2 Hide me from the conspiracy of the wicked,
from that noisy crowd of evildoers.
3 They sharpen their tongues like swords
and aim their words like deadly arrows.
4 They shoot from ambush at the innocent man;
they shoot at him suddenly, without fear.
5 They encourage each other in evil plans,
they talk about hiding their snares;
they say, "Who will see them [a] ?"
6 They plot injustice and say,
"We have devised a perfect plan!"
Surely the mind and heart of man are cunning. (Psalm 64:1-6)
First: I will pray more for our community more, asking God to open hardened hearts to Jesus Christ. Christ can transform people from monsters to human beings. Whether the allegations against the Carrolls are true or not, others in your community and mine could engage in such plotting against defenseless children. When minds, wills, and hearts come under the Lordship of the Prince of peace, such monstrousness as is alleged here is unthinkable.In the face of such evil, a renewed dependence on the God we know through Jesus Christ is our only hope!
Second: I will ask God to give me greater dedication and strength to share Christ with everyone. Again, people under the Lordship of Jesus, though not perfect, are filled with His love and can tap into the self-control that goes with being a loved and loving child of God.
Third: I will pray that God will encircle our entire community with His protection. I urge you to pray for every child in our community, asking God to protect them spiritually, physically, emotionally, and relationally. Pray this especially as our schools begin their new years. Ask that every student, teacher, adminstrator, and staffer will have wills opened to Christ, that Christ will go to them to love them and guide them, and that our schools will be places of safety. Invite God to be the Lord of everyone and everything in our community!
Fourth: I will pray that if the Carrolls are proven guilty, that they will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Even if the Carrolls and their co-conspirators repent for the sins they're alleged to have perpetrated against Marcus, they have also allegedly violated the law, an instrument God has given whereby the rest of society is protected from those unwilling to voluntarily love God and love neighbor under the Lordship of Christ. (I explain here how Christians regard governments, laws, and police power.)
The salvation of the righteous comes from the LORD;Now is a good time for us to come to the Lord and ask Him in the Name of Jesus Christ to turn us and our whole community to Him and His ways!
he is their stronghold in time of trouble. (Psalm 37:39)
...someone will ask me, "Do you really mean, at this time of day [in other words, at this supposedly advanced stage of human development], to reintroduce our old friend the devil-hoofs and horns and all?" Well, what the time of day has to do with it, I do not know. And I am not particular about the hoofs and horns. But in other respects my answer is, "Yes, I do..."And so do I. I’m convinced that there is a devil and I’m not alone in that belief.
Finally, be strong in the Lord and in the strength of his power.Paul isn’t telling Christians to grit their teeth or to exercise will power. Trying to be strong in the face of the devil will only result in our being “lost, rejected.” In the original New Testament Greek, be strong, is actually written in the passive voice, having more of the meaning: Be strengthened in the Lord. Now, consider what Paul is saying: Be strengthened by God in the strength of His power!
Put on the whole armor of God, so that you may be able to stand against the wiles of the devil. For our struggle is not against enemies of blood and flesh, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the cosmic powers of this present darkness, against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly places. Therefore take up the whole armor of God, so that you may be able to withstand on that evil day, and having done everything, to stand firm.In other words, let the power, grace, and goodness of God that belong to all who follow Jesus Christ, cover you and your whole life.