Will Condi Be Nominated by the GOP in 2008? I Don't Think So, But Not for the Reasons You Might Think

Ann Althouse's suggestion that Condoleezza Rice would make a good presidential candidate has engendered a surprising amount of conversation on this Memorial Day weekend Saturday. Some suggest that her being an unmarried woman might have a negative effect on her chances. I've also read and heard others in other places say that she would be hurt by her race. I don't think that Condoleezza Rice will be nominated for President by the Republicans. Nor do I see Hillary Clinton being nominated by the Democrats. But I see gender, marital status, and race as non-issues.

Here's what I wrote in Althouse's comments section:

One would hope that being a woman, single, or African-American would not be reasons for people to dismiss potential candidates for the presidency.

I harbor the same hope for people who've never held elective office. While I think it's wise to elect people to the presidency who've been "around the block" and know politics, it's possible to gain such experience in more than the strictly "political" world.

But I just don't see Condoleezza Rice as a successful candidate for President. We've had a history of electing secretaries of state or former ones to the presidency, of course. But this was early in our country's history.

These days, secretaries of state tend to be persons who've cultivated an expertise in foreign policy through diplomatic service, in academia, or in a combination of those two. Their tenures as chief diplomats for the US give them little time to cultivate ward heelers in places like Dubuque, Nashua, and Columbia, essential for anyone who would be President because there is no such thing as the draft of meritorious candidates. Successful candidates for President must weather the challenges of the primaries and caucuses, particularly in those early contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

It should also be said that generally speaking, folks who function well as diplomats must develop ways of thinking and communicating that don't always connect well with the average voter. While it's hard not to have a high opinion of Rice--she's proven herself a capable, tough-minded person in every post she's held, it's hard to imagine her speaking with South Dakotans about agricultural price supports, for example.

On top of all this, the demands of a secretary of state's job are such that it would be very difficult for Rice, in the winter of 2008, to run for the nomination. It's a lot easier for senators and former governors to do that.

I could be wrong about all of this...that's happened before! But I just don't think that she has much of a chance.

Thankfully though, I don't see her gender, race, or marital status making any difference. Isn't it nice that we can say that?

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As to Hillary, the most recent polling seems to indicate that the same thing is happening for the Clinton family that happened for the Bushes. When Bush the Elder left the White House, he was disdained as a wealthy pol distant from the concerns and experiences of the average citizen and a failure as president. Within a few short years--and some would say, owing in part to the experiences of the Clinton Administration--people looked back on him with appreciation and nostalgia. Much of George W.'s early support stemmed from the positive feelings people had developed for his father.

Now, 58% of the American people indicate a willingness to vote for Hillary, a person not long ago seen as the political equivalent of nuclear contamination, especially in the Red or Purple states.

In the past, I've told people, "There's no way she'll be nominated for the presidency and that if by some happenstance she were nominated, she would get her clock cleaned." Now I don't know.

But if she were nominated by the Democrats, I don't think that her being a woman would matter that much. Maybe I'm being naive, but I just don't.

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One other thing. Any speculation about who Rice or Clinton would ask to be their running mates if it came to that? I mean, if we believe that they have deficiencies as presidential candidates, who might they ask to be their veeps to offset those.

Rice would be in a funny position. She would have to give herself both a harder edge to reassure the hardcore NASCAR male and a softer one to placate those more liberal than she on both foreign and domestic issues. Oddly enough, I think that Rice might have to deal with a reverse gender gap: My guess is that her support among men would be stronger than among women.

Clinton's recent speeches have shown what she must do generally: tack to the middle. She would seem to need to pick a centrist Dem male, maybe one who is pro-life, for her running mate. Harry Reid would fit the bill except that as minority leader, he's become a lightning rod, a choice that would risk making Clinton even more controversial.

But in any case, this is probably an academic exercise, as I don't see either Rice or Clinton being nominated. These speculations are always fun for political junkies though.