What Happens Next in Zimbabwe?

With the probable continuation and escalation of violence and bloodshed in his country looming in the days ahead, it's impossible to fault opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai for withdrawing from the runoff election for president in Zimbabwe. The withdrawal is certainly not because, as a Mugabe henchman said, Tsvangarai is "chicken." He has soldiered on in spite of numerous incarcerations and beatings.

Rather, his withdrawal confirms the sad state of affairs in Zimbabwe.

Zimbabwe's longtime president, Robert Mugabe, a murderous dictator who has ruled and economically decimated his country for nearly three decades, has both stated and publicly demonstrated that he will do anything, including murdering and intimidating anybody, in order to remain in power. “Only God, who appointed me," Mugabe said on Friday, "will remove me, not the M.D.C., not the British. Only God will remove me!”

Mugabe, who led the drive for Zimbabwean independence from Britain, loves to blame the former colonial power for his country's problems, even accusing Tsvangirai and his partisans of being British tools. But Zimbabwe's problems, from its violent repression to its disastrous economy, are the result of Mugabe's paranoid isolationism, not British intervention.

So too, is the violence that assails anyone who dares to speak in opposition to the government or its policies. After government-supported thugs once again prevented a Tsvangirai rally from happening and Tsvangirai supporters were threatened for their intention to oppose Mugabe in the upcoming election, the opposition candidate evidently decided both that enough blood had been shed and that the international community needed a dramatic wake-up call, one might cause them to find a conscience.

But if Tsvangirai is betting on regional governments suddenly doing the right things, the odds are against him. Mugabe couldn't have possibly held onto power as long as he has were it not for the legitimacy given to him by the fellowship of African leaders who, rigged election after rigged election, have declared Mugabe's wins to be the results of fair and free processes.

The most disgraceful of nations in this regard has been South Africa. The major power in that region of Africa, if the South African government were to speak the truth about Mugabe, it would set off a chain reaction involving other regional governments and the African Union that would no doubt result in Mugabe's ouster and the installation of a legitimately elected government there.

South Africa has a democratically elected government precisely because international pressure ended the former repressive, illegitimate, white minority government there. That the South African government would be party to Mugabe's continued reign of terror and incompetence is a tragic irony.

Hopefully, Tsvangirai's dramatic withdrawal from the race for Zimbabwean president, will cause South Africa and other nations in the region to tell Robert Mugabe, "We've heard from God, too. God has said it's time for you to step down, Robert. Go."