Note to Self: When It Comes to People, Things Change

Note to self: When it comes to people, things change. So don't be so certain that you know what you think you know.

After the November 2 election, I dismissed the assertions of some Democrats that because President Bush won re-election with about 51% of the vote, he lacked a mandate to aggressively pursue the agenda he touted during the campaign.

For one thing, the argument seemed hypocritical. Bill Clinton, for example, didn't receive majority votes in either 1992 or 1996. Yet, I couldn't recall that any Democrat had suggested then that Mr. Clinton lacked mandates to pursue his policies.

Beyond that, I pointed out, the President had received a majority. So, clearly he possessed a mandate.

The President effectively said the same thing when, in his first post-election news conference, he spoke of employing the political "capital" that the American people had just given to him.

How strange it was for me then, shortly thereafter, to begin to see evidence that not only did Democrats disdain the President's mandate, so evidently, did some Republicans.

The first confirmation of this came, for me, when conservative members of Mr. Bush's party, perhaps in collusion with Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, tried to scuttle the Intelligence Reform plan that the President said he supported. Whether these members believed Mr. Bush possessed a mandate for his policies or not, their very public opposition to the President appeared to give credence to the earlier Democratic assertions.

Mr. Bush ultimately prevailed in that battle. But it left me wonder if the President was going to have this sort of trouble with a Republican Congress on a national security issue immediately following his re-election, what would the next four years bring when it came to things like Social Security, the enactment of permanent tax cuts, and so on?

Then came the second reason for making the aforementioned note to myself.

In the days following the November 2 election, the member of Mr. Bush's cabinet who seemed to enjoy the most unassailable position was Secretary Rumsfeld. Secretary of the Tresury Snow had, it seems, been reluctantly retained in his slot by the President. But Rumsfeld was the only major cabinet member who had both chosen to stay and firmly endorsed in doing so by the President. Renowned as a bureaucratic infighter, Rumsfeld clearly won that war in the Younger Bush's first term.

Then came Rumsfeld's tour designed to boost troop morale, the question about armor from Spc. Thomas Wilson, and the secretary's response, seen by many (including me) as insensitive and disrespectful of America's military personnel.

Suddenly, several Republicans, representing various wings of the party, stepped forward to criticize Rumsfeld, some calling for his ouster or resignation and others saying they lacked confidence in him. John McCain, Norm Coleman, Trent Lott, Susan Collins, and Chuck Hagel are all Republicans who have said that it's time for Rumsfeld to go.

It's possible, I suppose, that these Republicans are orchestrating their comments with a White House that now sees Rumsfeld as a liability.

But it's more likely, I think, that Republicans in Congress may see the President's election mandate as far less pervasive than Mr. Bush sees it. The Republican Party, now clearly the majority party in the country, has become a big tent inclusive of many stripes of conservatism. In the next four years, Mr. Bush will have to do lots of legislative negotiating to get his way with Congress.

It's not something for the President to fear or rue. His is the common lot of all Presidents who preside during eras when theirs is the majority party. Franklin Roosevelt and his cousin Theodore found similar eras conducive to achieving many of their goals and having effective presidencies. Lyndon Johnson, confronting similar circumstances though, was unable to effectively negotiate their special challenges and opportunities.

Things have changed. The Republican White House, no longer members of the perennial opposition party will have to effectively govern by working policies through an increasingly diverse GOP congressional delegation.

If, within the next few days, the President regretfully accepts the resignation of his Secretary of Defense, it will signal Mr. Bush's acknowledgement of these new realities and his intention to govern as the President of the majority party.

Of course, I could be wrong because, after all, when it comes to people, things change. You can't be too certain that you know what you think you know.