Conventinal wisdom says that Mike Huckabee (pictured at the left) has hurt Mitt Romney's presidential bid. The notion is that Huck denies Romney the votes of true conservatives.But tonight, MSNBC polling shows that among evangelical Protestants, a core constituent group among Republicans, the vote was roughly evenly split among Romney, Huckabee, and John McCain, each polling about 30%.
One clear conclusion of these results is that evangelicals, though conservative, cannot be regarded as a monlith.
And, more broadly, that means that it has been highly presumptuous for the Romney people to say that, were it not for Mike Huckabee's bothersome candidacy, he would be the natural recipient of the votes of true conservatives.
The Huckabee campaign could, with credibility, argue that it is Romney who should make way for the former Arkansas governor. Unlike Romney, Huckabee has always been pro-life and always favored to a constitutional amendment defining marriage as one man and one woman for life. Romney's bona fides as a conservative are clearly questionable, at best.
But, in spite of his suggestion that the Constitution be amended to conform to the Bible, Huckabee's votes in the Bible Belt, where frontrunner John McCain has not been as strong--except in South Carolina, estabishes him as the frontrunner to be John McCain's vice presidential running mate.
After Super Tuesday, what I argued here, that the likeliest Republican ticket would be either McCain-Huckabee or Huckabee-McCain, seems even likelier.
What is clear is that, unless Romney pulls off a miracle in California tonight, Republicans who don't like McCain will at least privately argue that the former Massachusetts governor should withdraw to make way for a conservative, Mike Huckabee.
[UPDATE: Thanks to The New York Times for linking to the Moderate Voice version of this post.]
6 comments:
Romney is the one candidate left who is likely to drop out if it looks like he can't take the nomination. He's spending his own money, and he is very interested in preserving his chances of making another run at it in four or eight years.
If he drops out, then the heads up match against McCain changes the entire GOP race.
Why?
Because Huckabee can dominate McCain in one-on-one debates and the past has proven emphatically that the more face time Huckabee gets on TV the more people flock to him.
By the way, I think you mean that Huckabee SUPPORTS a marriage amendment, right?
Chad:
Yes, I meant to say that Huckabee has always supported such an amendment and will change the language accordingly.
I disagree with you in saying that Huckabee would beat McCain. He could beat McCain, I suppose. But that is by no means a done deal.
And Huckabee in the general election, I'm afraid, after some of the things he's said this election season--particularly on economics and his suggestion about conforming the Constitution to the Bible--would, I think, get his clock cleaned.
Even without Huckabee on the ticket, Republicans may become beneficiaries of a miracle. John McCain can win over independents and in spite of the brave talk right ow, the Republican base will not take a pass if Hillary Clinton is the nominee of the Democrats.
Mark
Mark, huckabee has bona fides as a social conservative, but he offers nothing to the small government conservatives. (Neither do the other two cnadidates.) The large splits amongst the voters (which is much more even than the delegate count would suggest) indicates a field that isn't offering much to one of the core constituencies of the party.
(Also, if McCain is the nominee, Florida will vote Democratic in November, all but guaranteeing a Democratic victory. The north Florida Republicans and conservative Democrats just aren't going to turn out for him in sufficient numbers to make up for losing South Florida and Central Florida. He'll take the Tampa area, but not by the 200% margin he'd need.)
I'm not predicting...I'm just analyzing.
Don't get me wrong. I don't think Huckabee will beat McCain. I just think if/when Romney drops out the GOP race changes in a big way...once again.
Of course McCain can prevent all this by apologizing for calling social conservatives "agents of intolerance" and actually acting like he wants their votes. He's got to do something to patch things up with that base.
He has to get the independents, but more important than independents, he needs the support of his own party to win the General Election.
Ice:
I think that Florida will probably vote Democratic this fall, no matter who the nominee of the Republicans is. This is the Democrats' year to lose. But the loss of Florida would not necessarily be fatal to Republican chances.
I agree with you that Huckabee's bona fides are as a social conservative only. He is poison to economic conservatives.
But Huckabee would shore up an important constituency for McCain.
Bottom line: The only Republican who has a chance of winning is McCain and if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, McCain will defeat her. If Obama is the nominee of the Democratic Party, I believe that he will win in the fall, even if the GOP nominates McCain.
Chad:
I think that McCain referred to a few specific leaders of the Religious Right as "agents of intolerance," not the entire movement.
My frustration with the Religious Right has more to do with concerns over its idolatry and its putting God into little political boxes. In short, my concerns have to do with my being a Christian. But McCain's comments were impolitic.
Mark
I get your points.
But social conservatives take it personally nonetheless. If McCain calls a conservative leader an "agent of intolerance" because he is fighting for an issue they agree with, then they will take offense transitively (I think I just made up a word) and personally.
His comments also provide insight into McCain's feelings on those issues. Bush has as many disagreements with the GOP base as McCain, but manages to keep them close. McCain needs to figure out how to replicate this approach.
I agree that Christians in general tend to put God into their own box. It's human nature it seems.
On the other hand, too many other Christians do not allow their faith to impact all areas of their lives, including matters of community and government. If just the faith community alone would put their beliefs into action we would live in a culture where life had value and there would be more compassion in our world.
Post a Comment