Sunday, May 07, 2006

Kos Appears Right for the Wrong Reason

Daily Kos blogger Markos Moulitsas, writing in today's Washington Post all but predicts that Hillary Clinton won't get the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination. I think that he's right. In fact, I think that Clinton will withdraw from the race long before the primaries and caucuses begin.

But I don't think that the Senator will fail to get the Democratic nod for the reason that Kos cites. He says that she's too much of an insider. He apparently believes that some web-savvy pol from beyond the Beltway is going to gain the nomination because latter day-Deaniacs (or their "netroot" successors) will deny the nomination to an establishment Dem.

My own judgment is that rank-and-file Democrats, the folks who vote in primaries and participate in caucuses, are going to use one criteria more than any other in deciding who they'll support for president in 2008: Electability. They're so desperate to elect a successor to George W. Bush that they'll nominate any Democrat who seems able to take them to the Promised Land.

This expedient attitude means that they won't be wedded to ideology. They won't be inclined to join a lemming march built on ideologically consoling rhetoric.

Neither will they pick an old favorite unacceptable to a majority of the country. Dems love Hillary Clinton, but they know that the rest of the country doesn't share their high opinion of her.

If Hillary Clinton were an insider who could win in 2008, Dems would nominate her in a heartbeat. After all, she's got the money, the organization, and the name recognition. But insider or not, she also has a ton of baggage.

I still think that the Dems will nominate Mark Warner in 2008. Unlike Hillary, he's electable.

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