Can Giuliani Be Elected to the Senate...or the Presidency?

If New York's Republican chair convinces former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani to challenge Hillary Rodham Clinton for the US Senate in 2006, it will indicate that Giuliani has given up on running for the presidency in 2008.

Giuliani's peripatetic travels of late indicate that he is testing the presidential waters. If he is going to make a run for the White House, he'll have to begin assembling a campaign team now and a run for the Senate would be at the least, a distraction, and more likely, reflective of a judgment that he can't win in 2008.

Frankly, I suspect that Giuliani is in a no-win situation. In spite of enjoying near-folk hero status akin to that enjoyed usually by generals like Washington, Eisenhower, and Grant, owing to his post-9/11 performance, he's still likely to be a tough sell in Republican presidential primaries. I just don't see how he wins the presidency.

In New York, it appears that Clinton has done a good job of positioning herself for re-election, something that she must secure if she has any chance of winning the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008. (A highly unlikely prospect, too, so far as I can see.) I frankly don't see Giuliani winning there, although I think a win 2006 is more likely than in 2008.

Giuliani probably would have done more to advance his presidential prospects by accepting nomination as Homeland Security secretary than anything he might do now. He would have boosted his stature in an area where he is strong, emphasizing and underscoring his chief asset among Republicans, and he would have avoided the embarrassment caused to him by the Kerik situation.

Of course, hindsight is 20/20. But if Giuliani concludes that he can be neither President or Senator, it will be interesting to see what he decides to do next, because he is a fascinating guy.

One other interesting element to this is that George Pataki, New York's governor, also apparently wants to be the GOP presidential nominee in 2008. Is the state Republican chair trying to eliminate Rudy as a rival to the governor, allowing the latter to become the state's official and undisputed 9/11 presidential candidate? I think that's highly likely.